Post by webrunner on May 16, 2010 7:59:23 GMT -7
After months of the voters picking off Obama's pals in both parties, the press still thinks it's just about "anti-incumbent" sentiment.
‘Super Tuesday’ for both parties
Angry electorate to render verdict on Washington in three states
U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., greets people as he arrives to campaign at a rally in Gateway Park on Saturday. Specter could be the next incumbent to fall as an angry electorate passes judgement on Washington, incumbency and the establishments of both parties.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
The Washington Post
By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
updated 2 hours, 20 minutes ago
An angry electorate, which already has delivered a series of shocks to the political system, will render a fresh verdict on Washington, incumbency and both party establishments in a slate of high-stakes contests Tuesday that are shaping up to form one of the most important voting days of the year.
Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) could be the next incumbent to fall, but by late Tuesday night, everyone from President Obama to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could feel the sting of voter anger that has shaped the election climate and that could produce a dramatic upheaval in Congress by November.
Everyone has a different definition of the anger: anti-incumbent; anti-Obama; anti-establishment; anti-Washington. But the expressions of displeasure are everywhere. Some voters think Washington is spending too much and is infringing on their rights. Others say Washington is not doing enough — to penalize bankers or to oversee the cleanup of the Gulf of Mexico as oil gushes from a broken well.
Democratic pollster Peter Hart said anyone searching for meaning from Tuesday's races need only look to grievances that have been building for months. "How many times do we need to tell the same story, which is that voters are looking for something that is not in Washington right now," he said.
In the past seven months, the discontent has taken many forms. Republicans have picked up the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey and, in a seismic shock, the Senate seat in Massachusetts long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy. Last weekend, Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) was defeated at a party convention; a few days later, Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his primary.
'Depth of anger at Washington'
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said the contests this week — dubbed the Super Tuesday of 2010 — must be seen through this prism: "They will be another measure of the depth of anger at Washington and the current state of the country."
The marquee race is the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania where Specter, who switched parties in 2009, is trailing Rep. Joe Sestak. Elected five times as a Republican, Specter defected to the Democrats because he feared he might lose his bid for re-nomination in the Republican primary. Now he could lose as a Democrat, although he enjoys the support of Obama and the Democratic establishment.
A second Democratic senator, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, is also fighting for survival, against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Whoever wins the Democratic nominations in those states will face stiff competition in the fall.
Under fire, Sen. Lincoln fights from middle
May 15: Blanche Lincoln, a moderate Democrat whose votes have angered both the left and right, is facing a tough primary challenge from Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Nightly News
Republicans have their own intraparty warfare to contend with on Tuesday. Kentucky has become a laboratory for measuring the relative powers of the "tea party" movement vs. the GOP establishment in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.). There, upstart Rand Paul is seeking the nomination against Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who enjoys the support of McConnell, the state's preeminent Republican.
Also, a special House election in western Pennsylvania to fill the vacancy created by the death of Rep. John P. Murtha (D) could provide clues to the prospects for Republicans to capture control of the House in November.
In addition, Oregon is holding primaries Tuesday.
That 2010 could be tough for incumbents is hardly a surprise, given the mood of the voters. But some strategists say it is possible to read too much into the defeats of Bennett and Mollohan.
In any normal year, Mollohan's defeat might have been written off to the baggage he carried from past ethics problems, although his vote for health-care reform was an important factor in the outcome. Bennett's defeat was the work of a few thousand party activists, not an expression of voter sentiment across Utah.
As one measure of comparison, four House members were defeated in primary contests in 2008, two in 2006 and two in 2004. Only one senator lost a primary during that time — Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) in 2006 — and he was reelected as an independent that fall.
CLICK FOR RELATED CONTENT
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To the extent that voters are looking to penalize all incumbents, Democrats would face the far harder hit this fall as the party in power in Congress and the White House. "Being a GOP incumbent this fall is a much better proposition than it is for a Democrat," said Republican strategist Terry Nelson.
The more powerful anger is aimed broadly at Washington. Obama's policies have sparked a significant backlash on the right, and many independent voters who backed him in his 2008 campaign have defected since he took office.
"The results across the board show the public with no trust in Washington, D.C., and a feeling Washington, D.C., has no ability to do anything well," said Matthew Dowd, a former campaign adviser to George W. Bush and now an independent analyst. "The country thinks D.C. is totally dysfunctional and is sick and tired of it."
In more placid times, voters say they hate Congress but like their representatives. "The question is whether that wall of separation has been breached," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "To the extent that incumbents lose in primaries, it helps suggest that those walls have been broken down."
The rest of the article is here:
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37175455/ns/politics-washington_post/
‘Super Tuesday’ for both parties
Angry electorate to render verdict on Washington in three states
U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., greets people as he arrives to campaign at a rally in Gateway Park on Saturday. Specter could be the next incumbent to fall as an angry electorate passes judgement on Washington, incumbency and the establishments of both parties.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
The Washington Post
By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
updated 2 hours, 20 minutes ago
An angry electorate, which already has delivered a series of shocks to the political system, will render a fresh verdict on Washington, incumbency and both party establishments in a slate of high-stakes contests Tuesday that are shaping up to form one of the most important voting days of the year.
Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) could be the next incumbent to fall, but by late Tuesday night, everyone from President Obama to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could feel the sting of voter anger that has shaped the election climate and that could produce a dramatic upheaval in Congress by November.
Everyone has a different definition of the anger: anti-incumbent; anti-Obama; anti-establishment; anti-Washington. But the expressions of displeasure are everywhere. Some voters think Washington is spending too much and is infringing on their rights. Others say Washington is not doing enough — to penalize bankers or to oversee the cleanup of the Gulf of Mexico as oil gushes from a broken well.
Democratic pollster Peter Hart said anyone searching for meaning from Tuesday's races need only look to grievances that have been building for months. "How many times do we need to tell the same story, which is that voters are looking for something that is not in Washington right now," he said.
In the past seven months, the discontent has taken many forms. Republicans have picked up the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey and, in a seismic shock, the Senate seat in Massachusetts long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy. Last weekend, Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) was defeated at a party convention; a few days later, Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his primary.
'Depth of anger at Washington'
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said the contests this week — dubbed the Super Tuesday of 2010 — must be seen through this prism: "They will be another measure of the depth of anger at Washington and the current state of the country."
The marquee race is the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania where Specter, who switched parties in 2009, is trailing Rep. Joe Sestak. Elected five times as a Republican, Specter defected to the Democrats because he feared he might lose his bid for re-nomination in the Republican primary. Now he could lose as a Democrat, although he enjoys the support of Obama and the Democratic establishment.
A second Democratic senator, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, is also fighting for survival, against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Whoever wins the Democratic nominations in those states will face stiff competition in the fall.
Under fire, Sen. Lincoln fights from middle
May 15: Blanche Lincoln, a moderate Democrat whose votes have angered both the left and right, is facing a tough primary challenge from Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Nightly News
Republicans have their own intraparty warfare to contend with on Tuesday. Kentucky has become a laboratory for measuring the relative powers of the "tea party" movement vs. the GOP establishment in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.). There, upstart Rand Paul is seeking the nomination against Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who enjoys the support of McConnell, the state's preeminent Republican.
Also, a special House election in western Pennsylvania to fill the vacancy created by the death of Rep. John P. Murtha (D) could provide clues to the prospects for Republicans to capture control of the House in November.
In addition, Oregon is holding primaries Tuesday.
That 2010 could be tough for incumbents is hardly a surprise, given the mood of the voters. But some strategists say it is possible to read too much into the defeats of Bennett and Mollohan.
In any normal year, Mollohan's defeat might have been written off to the baggage he carried from past ethics problems, although his vote for health-care reform was an important factor in the outcome. Bennett's defeat was the work of a few thousand party activists, not an expression of voter sentiment across Utah.
As one measure of comparison, four House members were defeated in primary contests in 2008, two in 2006 and two in 2004. Only one senator lost a primary during that time — Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) in 2006 — and he was reelected as an independent that fall.
CLICK FOR RELATED CONTENT
Flood of outside money hits the primaries
In primaries, 'incumbent' is a four-letter word
To the extent that voters are looking to penalize all incumbents, Democrats would face the far harder hit this fall as the party in power in Congress and the White House. "Being a GOP incumbent this fall is a much better proposition than it is for a Democrat," said Republican strategist Terry Nelson.
The more powerful anger is aimed broadly at Washington. Obama's policies have sparked a significant backlash on the right, and many independent voters who backed him in his 2008 campaign have defected since he took office.
"The results across the board show the public with no trust in Washington, D.C., and a feeling Washington, D.C., has no ability to do anything well," said Matthew Dowd, a former campaign adviser to George W. Bush and now an independent analyst. "The country thinks D.C. is totally dysfunctional and is sick and tired of it."
In more placid times, voters say they hate Congress but like their representatives. "The question is whether that wall of separation has been breached," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "To the extent that incumbents lose in primaries, it helps suggest that those walls have been broken down."
The rest of the article is here:
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37175455/ns/politics-washington_post/